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BlackChampagne -- no longer new; improvement also in question.: Baseball thought



Saturday, June 04, 2005  

Baseball thought


I never write about baseball, and I may never write about it again after this entry, and you might already be skipping this one just in case. So I'll try to be brief, and this isn't actually about any specific baseball team or player. My thought is actually about the hitting with "Runners in Scoring Position" issue, henceforth to be abbreviated to RiSP.

RiSP simply means you are batting with a baserunner on second and/or third base, where they are, in theory, in scoring position; I.E. they'll get to home plate ahead of a throw if the batter gets a hit. Hits in that situation are very useful, since obviously enough, the object of baseball is to score more runs than the other team scores. There may also be a runner on first, but that's not considered "scoring position" since they can't score from there unless the batter hits a double or triple or homerun. The logic seems to be that a batter can be expected to stroke a single with a RiSP, but that more than that is luck.

Anyway, the situation stuck in my mind since the batter, Dave Roberts, was doing very well with RiSP this season, and he was 12 for 25 or something like that. In the bit of game I saw, he came up with men on first and third and no one out, and got a hit. Unfortunately, it was a little bouncing bunt type thing that just crawled past the pitcher. Roberts reached first on it, the man on first went to second, but the man on third did not head for home, since he couldn't be sure the pitcher wouldn't get to the hit and throw him out at home plate.

My question was, does that count as a hit and a success with RiSP? I mean yeah, technically it's a hit, and there was a runner on third, IE in scoring position... but he didn't score! He wasn't out, and Roberts kept the inning going, but should a batter be credited with a hit and success in that situation when the runner didn't actually score? After all, the whole reason they keep track (unofficially or otherwise) of hitting with RiSP is because it's assumed said runners will score if there's a hit.

The whole record keeping is suspect anyway, since in theory you could bat ten times with a man on third and less than two outs, hit a sacrifice fly nine times, strike out the other time, and on the year you'd be 0-1 with 9 RBIs when batting with RiSP. And it's clearly a pretty janky stat, when you take it to that extreme. Of course most of them are.
Comments:

Batting average with RiSP is another "conventional" stat that is about cherry-picking an arbitrary small sample size to make a better story. In this case, is the hitter "clutch" or not. Another one I've seen a lot this year is "late hitting." What are hitters averages in the 7-9th innings? Of course, typically, since you're getting a home team broadcast, they only put up this stat for the home players that are doing well and only for the opposing players who aren't.

Team RiSP can help explain why teams are losing close games, but it usually evens out over the course of a season. For one batter I think it's meaningless.

Go Cubs!


 

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